1. Iran is building a nuclear weapon.
2. Iran is building a nuclear weapon to bomb Israel and America.
We hear these two statements a lot these days, but are they true to reality?
Iran says they are not building a nuclear weapons program. Instead, they claim the enrichment of Uranium has to do with a program of energy (to boil water via controlled nuclear reactions) and medicine (the isotopes can treat cancer patients).
Well, if their program is so peaceful, why did they just move a program to enrich Uranium (to a slightly higher degree, 20% I believe) inside a mountain which provides something like 90 feet of mountain to protect it from areal bombardment?
I would argue (as would anyone who has read a bit of the history of the Iranian people) that there is some serious psychological damage which has been suffered by the leadership of that state. How could they trust the West after their leader (back in the 50s, I believe) decided that the resources of Iran ought to be used to increase the prosperity of the Iranians, only to be ousted by a CIA coup? It isn’t enough that a leader which was sensitive to the people was tossed out, but that the West then installed a terribly oppressive leader who was sympathetic to the interests of the West. Of course, after a time, the people finally said ‘fuck this’ and disposed of that asshole and brought in an asshole of their own. The new asshole then ruled along that same line of anger and paranoia over the people rather brutally (in cases where the people wanted more control of the state: see paranoia of another coup from outside interests), and has viewed the powers of the West (perhaps rightfully so) with complete distrust and contempt. (Here I should add that the west funded/supplied Iraq in a rather long war against Iran, which Iran eventually won).
Why would such a regime then not construct projects of interest outside of the reach of powers who are growing equally paranoid (viscous cycles work like this), and are insisting on destryoing Iran before they themselves are hypothetically destroyed (mainly Israel, in this regard)?
Ah hah… and here we come to my opinion. I do believe that Iran will be constructing its own bomb. Will they be working toward nuclear power? Yes, why wouldn’t they. Medical Isotopes? Of course, Iranians get cancer too. Are they building nuclear weapons to attack Israel and the West? No, that would amount to suicide by police. No one but a suicidal asshole would invite nuclear retaliation (annihilation) upon themselves. Iran isn’t suicidal, just as the Soviet Union wasn’t, just as the U.S. wasn’t… just as every nuclear power (thus far) isn’t.
Iran wants that bomb so that they can sit comfortably knowing that they will not become the next Iraq or Libya. Nuclear weapons are useless today (I’m saying this before the first use of so-called ‘Tactical Nukes’. These are small yield devices which are used to penetrate deep underground bunkers/bases and to do away with advancing military forces when one’s own troops/critical infrastructure are under assault or direct/immediate threat.). The usefulness of nuclear weapons only comes into play as a deterrent. And as Iran doesn’t exactly go along with the interests of the West, and their conventional military isn’t sufficient to defend it from a U.S. attack, they (probably rightly so) wish to have the same deterrent right which extends to all inside the nuclear club (this includes states like North Korea).
So. Are they building a bomb? Maybe. To attack people? No. Do they have a right? Well, states have a right to defend their borders, but I don’t believe any state has the right to split atoms in that fashion anywhere on or off Earth.
Am I defending Iran here? Well, I don’t like everything that their leadership does… but I don’t like everything our leadership does either, and I certainly don’t want people from other nations to support campaigns to kill me and the people I love, because of the actions taken by the state which represents me. Upon this I cannot condemn the people of Iran. Instead I choose to condemn this whole INSANE geopolitical dance of death, which passes for nightly news these days.
So that’s more or less my take on the situation. I hope it doesn’t come to blows, but I almost don’t see how it won’t. I’d like to see the people of Iran be more free, and I don’t see how bombing them into the stone ages is going to accomplish anything (much less that) other than to create more enemies (and a further need for other unpopular states to get into the nuclear club themselves), just as did our invasion and occupation of Iraq.
… to Iran, to Israel, to America with love. Let’s try and fix this before it goes beyond fixing.